A recent front page article in the Los Angeles Times leads with the headline, “El Nino is here. Fears are rising.”  The article forewarns, “A rare convergence of a powerful El Nino with super king tides and a sea level rise spurred by climate change could menace California with record coastal flooding this winter.” 
      Last month the public Information Office of Santa Barbara County issued a statement urging residents to, “prepare now as an El Nino weather pattern could bring increased rainfall to the region.”  The release encouraged “residents to prepare now to protect their families, homes and property from flooding.”    
           Matthew Griffin, Deputy Director Flood Control for the County says preparation for flooding is important, “statistically there is the probability of above average rainfall, but El Nino conditions do not guarantee we are going to have a wet winter.” Griffin recalls 2016 was a strong what was called a “Godzilla El Nino” year but a dry year for Santa Barbara County rainfall. 
Griffin says the County Flood Control Department prepares every year for heavy rainfall. “We make sure channels and debris basins are clean and in good shape for the winter. We also do a lot of maintenance on creeks and rivers.  We are not doing anything special this year; this and every year is the same.”  
Matthew Scrudato, Senior Hydrologist for the County Water Agency echoes the same theme.  “We always prepare for the worst.  This may be a higher rainfall year; but we never know. El Nino is not a sure predictor of a local heavy rainfall year.”   
Nevertheless, the County recommends residents have a communication and evacuation plan in case family members are separated and also have an emergency supply kit with non-perishable food, water, medications, first aid supplies, batteries and a working flashlight.  
           According to the Los Angeles Times article, Reinhard Flick, a researcher at the UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography, says there are factors that indicate there this year that could increase the potential for increased rainfall from El Nino.  “The 18.6 year lunar node and 4.4 year lunar perigee tidal cycles that arise from small changes in the orbit of the moon affect its tide generating force on ocean waters.”  The 4.4-year tide cycle also peaked during the 1982-83 El Nino, contributing to destructive coastal flooding in California. 
           Locally the 1982-1983 rainfall in Orcutt was one of the wettest seasons ever monitored. 
Santa Barbara County will host a virtual El Nino Community Meeting October 1, 2026, from 5:30-7p.m. to help residents get ready for the upcoming storm season.  You can register for the zoom meeting at this link:    https://santabarbaracounty.zoomgov.com/webinar/register/WN_JI6fYyrPTZ2X3K2hC4dXGw.   Additional storm preparedness information and flood safety tips is available on the County storm preparation website: https://www.countyofsb.org/pw-storm-preparation.  
Steve Southwick reporting